Classified
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.30
1.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.67%
EV $1.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.14%
25.5K openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $33.42 47.74 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 80 | $11.24 16.06 coins | 12.0% | 276 | 319.7 | 0.86× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $4.69 6.7 coins | 35.9% | 2,391 | 2302.0 | 1.04× |
| Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 400 | $4.26 6.08 coins | 0.9% | 52 | 63.9 | 0.81× |
| Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $3.37 4.82 coins | 25.9% | 2,264 | 2302.0 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 10.5% | $0.84 1.2 coins | 7.5% | 2,694 | 2683.1 | 1.00× |
| P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 7.9% | 7,830 | 7673.4 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.29 0.42 coins | 5.0% | 4,995 | 5115.6 | 0.98× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.27 0.39 coins | 4.7% | 5,074 | 5115.6 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPsIcHo csgoroll.com$1.301.85 coins$4.696.7 coins3.62x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.30 | 90.67% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.29 | 90.67% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.27 | 90.75% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.30 | 91.04% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 1.3%restricted 9.0%mil spec 69.7%milspec 20.0%best hit —