Claustrophobia

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.67

8.1 coins

Advertised RTP

90.94%

EV $5.16 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.19%

5,496 openings, odds method

Variance

58.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

152.06%±65.68520 openings

7 days

90.25%±22.394,399 openings

30 days

100.19%±20.025,496 openings

since tracking started

100.19%±20.025,496 openings

67.0%142.8%218.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	520	152.06%±65.7	+1.8σ	odds
7d	4,399	90.25%±22.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	5,496	100.19%±20.0	+0.9σ	odds
All	5,496	100.19%±20.0	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,504 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$2,895 4,135 coins	5.6%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,531 3,616 coins	4.9%	1	0.6	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$553 790 coins	7.5%	2	3.9	0.52×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,111	$288 412 coins	5.0%	9	5.0	1.82×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$279 398 coins	2.4%	4	2.5	1.61×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$125 179 coins	3.6%	6	8.3	0.73×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 160	$89.60 128 coins	10.9%	41	34.4	1.19×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 400	$50.97 72.81 coins	2.5%	12	13.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 133	$32.33 46.19 coins	4.7%	30	41.3	0.73×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.17 30.25 coins	4.1%	51	55.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$7.64 10.92 coins	3.0%	108	110.1	0.98×
P2000 \| Space Race (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$6.17 8.82 coins	1.8%	106	82.6	1.28×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$4.18 5.97 coins	8.1%	508	550.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Death's Head Demolitionmusic kit · high	26.0%	$3.97 5.67 coins	20.0%	1,445	1431.0	1.01×
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 18	$3.50 5 coins	3.7%	328	302.7	1.08×
Sticker \| fEAR (Gold) \| Shanghai 2024sticker · extraordinary	26.0%	$1.83 2.62 coins	9.2%	1,452	1431.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	26.0%	$0.57 0.81 coins	2.9%	1,400	1431.0	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary$5.678.1 coins$2,8954,135 coins510.5x10h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.668.09 coins$2,5313,616 coins447.0x8d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5.668.09 coins$554792 coins97.90x7d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertZ E U S'$5.718.15 coins$553790 coins96.93x2d

AUG | Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$5.678.1 coins$288412 coins50.86x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | fEAR (Gold) | Shanghai 2024sticker · extraordinaryBARDA$5.678.1 coins$1.832.62 coins0.32x15m

Sticker | fEAR (Gold) | Shanghai 2024sticker · extraordinary$5.678.1 coins$1.832.62 coins0.32x15m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.678.1 coins$0.570.81 coins0.10x24m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedwSe$5.678.1 coins$0.570.81 coins0.10x24m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.678.1 coins$0.570.81 coins0.10x24m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specwSe$5.678.1 coins$4.185.97 coins0.74x24m

Sticker | fEAR (Gold) | Shanghai 2024sticker · extraordinary$5.678.1 coins$1.832.62 coins0.32x24m

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Death's Head Demolitionmusic kit · high$5.678.1 coins$3.975.67 coins0.70x24m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.678.1 coins$0.570.81 coins0.10x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$5.67	90.94%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.69	90.86%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$5.71	90.87%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.66	90.94%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.7%restricted 29.7%classified 1.8%industrial 5.8%mil spec 10.0%high 26.0%extraordinary 26.0%best hit $2,895 (510.5x)