Cleanup
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.98
7.11 coins
Advertised RTP
90.97%
EV $4.53 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.10%
16.4K openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $555 793 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $40.98 58.55 coins | 2.3% | 50 | 41.2 | 1.21× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $33.52 47.88 coins | 66.6% | 1,476 | 1483.6 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $31.04 44.34 coins | 8.6% | 226 | 206.1 | 1.10× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $6.99 9.99 coins | 13.9% | 1,456 | 1483.6 | 0.98× |
| Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.5% | $3.10 4.43 coins | 7.2% | 1,701 | 1729.3 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 5,050 | 4945.5 | 1.02× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 3,315 | 3297.0 | 1.01× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,210 | 3297.0 | 0.97× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.98 | 90.97% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.02 | 90.94% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.02 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.86 | 90.92% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $4.86 | 90.96% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.85 | 90.96% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.89 | 90.85% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.0%classified 0.3%restricted 11.7%mil spec 9.0%consumer 70.0%best hit $578 (119.2x)