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A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$238.40

341 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $216.73 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.23%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

43.0%88.5%134.0%

Small sample. 22 openings and 8.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	18	88.33%±44.9	—	odds
30d	22	91.23%±40.6	—	odds
All	22	91.23%±40.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$5,817 8,310 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$2,667 3,810 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$1,373 1,962 coins	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$1,292 1,845 coins	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,000 1,429 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$872 1,246 coins	4.0%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 25	$456 651 coins	8.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 67	$440 628 coins	3.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$414 592 coins	5.7%	0	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 17	$398 568 coins	11.0%	2	1.3	1.52×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20	$390 557 coins	9.0%	3	1.1	2.73×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	16.6%	$370 529 coins	28.4%	3	3.7	0.82×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 17	$356 508 coins	9.8%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	16.0%	$193 275 coins	14.2%	4	3.5	1.14×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	13.0%	$2.99 4.27 coins	0.2%	4	2.9	1.40×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	13.0%	$1.81 2.59 coins	0.1%	1	2.9	0.35×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$0.78 1.11 coins	0.1%	3	3.1	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.