Cloud
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.34
6.2 coins
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $3.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.33%
11.6K openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.95% – 90.71%, 11,566 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $221 316 coins | 11.2% | 18 | 23.1 | 0.78× |
| AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $77.70 111 coins | 19.7% | 92 | 115.7 | 0.79× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $18.35 26.22 coins | 9.3% | 225 | 231.5 | 0.97× |
| SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $7.64 10.91 coins | 9.7% | 598 | 578.7 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $6.43 9.19 coins | 6.5% | 465 | 463.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 18.8% | $4.90 7 coins | 23.3% | 2,157 | 2175.9 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 19.0% | $3.38 4.83 coins | 16.3% | 2,263 | 2199.1 | 1.03× |
| M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 50.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 4.0% | 5,756 | 5787.0 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedReettaonläski$4.346.2 coins$4.907 coins1.13x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedTerroristi$4.346.2 coins$4.907 coins1.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.34 | 90.94% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.34 | 90.86% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.38 | 90.98% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.40 | 90.96% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.2%mil spec 52.0%industrial 5.0%restricted 4.0%classified 37.8%best hit $230 (52.39x)