Cobalt
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$71.29
102 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $64.82 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.54%
1,056 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,056 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$72.07103 coins$595850 coins8.26x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$71.29102 coins$48.3369.05 coins0.68x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$71.29102 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.57x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$71.29102 coins$27.7439.63 coins0.39x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedm1chi$71.29102 coins$27.7439.63 coins0.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.29 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.17 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.07 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 24.3%restricted 20.2%extraordinary 1.1%classified 40.0%mil spec 14.4%best hit $595 (8.26x)