Cocoon
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$94.74
135 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $86.13 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.92%
6,084 openings, odds method
Variance
12.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,084 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertKickerrrrrrrr$95.78137 coins$2,0762,965 coins21.67x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertDer beste Uwe$95.78137 coins$2,0762,965 coins21.67x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertChickenDinner CSGORoll.com$95.78137 coins$2,0762,965 coins21.67x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertJhon csgoroll.com$94.74135 coins$2,0692,955 coins21.83x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$94.74135 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$94.74135 coins$1,7132,447 coins18.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $94.74 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $94.74 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $95.78 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%epic 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $2,076 (21.67x)