Code Red
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.16
15.94 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $10.14 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.17%
10.8K openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $11.16 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.15 | 90.88% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.14 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $11.17 | 90.88% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $11.15 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.17 | 90.89% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 11.4%covert 0.4%restricted 14.1%industrial 1.2%mil spec 58.0%Rare 15.0%best hit $1,045 (93.72x)