Cold Fusion

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,384.27
1,978 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
53.47%
30 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
30 days
30 openings · below min
since tracking started
30 openings · below min
15.0%53.5%92.0%

Small sample. 30 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d3053.47%±37.7—sample
All3053.47%±37.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGORoll publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,3841,978 coins$2,9794,255 coins2.15x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · coverttashud$1,3841,978 coins$2,9794,255 coins2.15x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,3841,978 coins$2,9794,255 coins2.15x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$1,3841,978 coins$1,3961,994 coins1.01x

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $6,003 (4.34x)