Cold Hands
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.80
1.14 coins
Advertised RTP
91.06%
EV $0.73 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.34%
36.7K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100,000 | $144 205 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 5,263 | $38.19 54.56 coins | 1.0% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $3.08 4.4 coins | 21.1% | 1,810 | 1833.0 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $1.70 2.43 coins | 29.3% | 4,700 | 4600.9 | 1.02× |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 12.5% | $1.59 2.27 coins | 27.3% | 4,630 | 4600.9 | 1.01× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.33 0.47 coins | 9.1% | 7,341 | 7361.4 | 1.00× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 10.8% | 9,133 | 9201.8 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 1.2% | 9,185 | 9201.8 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialspeen.mp4$0.801.14 coins$0.030.05 coins0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.06%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $0.80 | 91.06% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.82 | 91.07% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.83 | 91.27% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $0.81 | 91.15% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.78 | 90.95% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 90.56% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%mil spec 62.5%restricted 12.5%industrial 25.0%best hit —