Comeback Case
A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$659.21
942 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $599.28 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.92%
56 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 56 openings and 10.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$671958 coins$7,44810,640 coins11.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $659 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $671 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 7.7%covert 52.3%mil spec 40.0%best hit $7,448 (11.10x)