Compound
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$136.03
194 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $123.66 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.98%
1,281 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.23% – 122.72%, 1,281 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,281 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$136194 coins$1,0631,518 coins7.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $136 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $137 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 13.9%classified 3.6%legendary 0.4%epic 0.7%restricted 1.5%consumer 80.0%best hit $5,688 (41.81x)