Confetti
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.26
50.37 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $32.05 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.35%
992 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 992 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$35.2650.37 coins$103147 coins2.92x
AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specCousin of po$35.2650.37 coins$1.321.88 coins0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.26 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $35.09 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $34.69 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.69 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.5%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 61.6%classified 0.8%exotic 4.0%restricted 13.0%best hit $1,778 (51.25x)