Confidential

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$124.77

178 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $113.43 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.10%

4,156 openings, odds method

Variance

33.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 101

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

441 openings · below min

7 days

102.72%±20.163,191 openings

30 days

99.10%±17.674,156 openings

since tracking started

99.10%±17.674,156 openings

60.0%114.8%169.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	441	114.55%±54.1	—	odds
7d	3,191	102.72%±20.2	+1.1σ	odds
30d	4,156	99.10%±17.7	+0.9σ	odds
All	4,156	99.10%±17.7	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 303	$7,336 10,480 coins	21.3%	22	13.7	1.60×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 303	$5,978 8,540 coins	17.4%	14	13.7	1.02×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 303	$5,817 8,310 coins	16.9%	12	13.7	0.87×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$4,617 6,595 coins	13.4%	16	13.7	1.17×
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 303	$3,311 4,730 coins	9.6%	6	13.7	0.44×
AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$1,528 2,183 coins	4.4%	12	13.7	0.87×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 303	$1,081 1,544 coins	3.1%	11	13.7	0.80×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 303	$939 1,341 coins	2.7%	17	13.7	1.24×
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 303	$846 1,209 coins	2.5%	19	13.7	1.39×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 303	$823 1,176 coins	2.4%	17	13.7	1.24×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 303	$767 1,095 coins	2.2%	18	13.7	1.31×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 303	$523 747 coins	1.5%	10	13.7	0.73×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 303	$488 697 coins	1.4%	15	13.7	1.09×
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 303	$194 277 coins	0.6%	7	13.7	0.51×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 263	$106 152 coins	0.4%	15	15.8	0.95×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	32.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	1,297	1329.9	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	31.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	1,338	1288.4	1.04×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	32.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,310	1329.9	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$126180 coins$7,44810,640 coins58.97x3d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$126180 coins$7,44810,640 coins58.97x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$126180 coins$7,44810,640 coins58.97x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryChris Handsome$126180 coins$7,44810,640 coins58.97x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$126180 coins$7,44810,640 coins58.97x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryFalken$126180 coins$7,44810,640 coins58.97x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$125178 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x17m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerLegend$125178 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x17m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$125178 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x17m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$125178 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x17m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkarma$125178 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x17m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$125178 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x17m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$125178 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x17m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$125178 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$125	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$125	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$126	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.7%covert 3.7%epic 0.3%extraordinary 0.3%consumer 95.0%best hit $7,448 (58.97x)