Conflagration

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.38

24.83 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $15.80 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.41%

2,291 openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72.08%±36.74223 openings

7 days

82.39%±12.911,831 openings

30 days

87.41%±11.562,291 openings

since tracking started

87.41%±11.562,291 openings

34.5%72.0%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	223	72.08%±36.7	−1.0σ	odds
7d	1,831	82.39%±12.9	−1.3σ	odds
30d	2,291	87.41%±11.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,291	87.41%±11.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,291 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,818	$906 1,295 coins	3.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,818	$599 855 coins	2.1%	5	1.3	3.97×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,538	$538 769 coins	2.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$426 609 coins	2.4%	3	2.1	1.45×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,538	$409 584 coins	1.7%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$304 434 coins	1.9%	4	2.3	1.75×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$260 371 coins	16.4%	15	22.9	0.65×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,111	$253 361 coins	1.4%	2	2.1	0.97×
Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$172 245 coins	13.0%	30	27.5	1.09×
Sticker \| ScreaM \| Cologne 2016sticker · high	1 in 63	$89.60 128 coins	9.1%	34	36.7	0.93×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$77.70 111 coins	6.6%	35	30.9	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$39.73 56.76 coins	5.0%	33	45.8	0.72×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$33.38 47.69 coins	4.8%	42	51.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$20.86 29.8 coins	6.6%	113	114.6	0.99×
Sticker \| GuardiaN (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 16	$18.82 26.89 coins	7.5%	150	144.3	1.04×
Krakow 2017 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base	1 in 25	$18.73 26.76 coins	4.7%	84	91.6	0.92×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,250	$16.42 23.46 coins	0.1%	2	1.8	1.09×
Sticker \| Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 11	$4.07 5.81 coins	2.3%	223	206.2	1.08×
Sticker \| Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare	10.0%	$4.00 5.72 coins	2.5%	226	229.1	0.99×
Sticker \| Showdown (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 11	$3.45 4.93 coins	2.0%	205	206.2	0.99×
Sticker \| Copenhagen Flames (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic	1 in 14	$2.81 4.01 coins	1.2%	152	160.4	0.95×
Sticker \| Incineration (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$2.56 3.66 coins	1.6%	232	229.1	1.01×
Sticker \| Fire in the Hole (Holo)sticker · remarkable	11.0%	$1.27 1.81 coins	0.9%	261	252.0	1.04×
Sticker \| Romanov's Fire (Foil)sticker · exotic	18.7%	$0.52 0.75 coins	0.6%	439	428.4	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$17.2424.63 coins$599855 coins34.71x4d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$17.2424.63 coins$599855 coins34.71x5d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertcock guzel ♥$17.2424.63 coins$599855 coins34.71x6d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$17.2424.63 coins$599855 coins34.71x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Showdown (Foil)sticker · exotic$17.3824.83 coins$3.454.93 coins0.20x27m

Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic$17.3824.83 coins$2.814.01 coins0.16x27m

Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare$17.3824.83 coins$4.005.72 coins0.23x27m

Sticker | Showdown (Foil)sticker · exotic$17.3824.83 coins$3.454.93 coins0.20x27m

Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic$17.3824.83 coins$2.814.01 coins0.16x27m

Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil)sticker · exoticJake$17.3824.83 coins$0.520.75 coins0.03x27m

Sticker | Fire in the Hole (Holo)sticker · remarkable$17.3824.83 coins$1.271.81 coins0.07x38m

Sticker | Showdown (Foil)sticker · exotic$17.3824.83 coins$3.454.93 coins0.20x38m

Sticker | Fire in the Hole (Holo)sticker · remarkable$17.3824.83 coins$1.271.81 coins0.07x38m

Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil)sticker · exoticJake$17.3824.83 coins$0.520.75 coins0.03x38m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$17.38	90.90%	24
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.37	90.92%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$17.22	90.90%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.24	90.89%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.7%restricted 5.1%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 3.5%high 1.6%remarkable 27.3%base 4.0%exotic 43.7%Rare 10.0%best hit $599 (34.71x)