Conquest
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.60
68 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $43.27 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.56%
75 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 75 openings and 17.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedfast csgoroll.com$47.6068 coins$46.8266.88 coins0.98x
MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classifiedfast csgoroll.com$47.6068 coins$14.1620.23 coins0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.60 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $47.42 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.66 | 90.90% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.7%classified 43.0%restricted 17.3%extraordinary 6.0%mil spec 8.0%best hit —