Construction

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$58.33

83.33 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $53.03 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

56.46%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

-0.5%70.5%141.5%

Small sample. 18 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	18	56.46%±84.4	—	odds
30d	18	56.46%±84.4	—	odds
All	18	56.46%±84.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$2,387 3,410 coins	2.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,205 3,150 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,837 2,625 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,391 1,987 coins	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,185 1,693 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$941 1,344 coins	1.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$811 1,159 coins	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$621 887 coins	4.1%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 204	$582 832 coins	5.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 667	$477 682 coins	1.4%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$348 497 coins	4.6%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 345	$293 418 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 435	$228 326 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 79	$176 252 coins	4.2%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$154 220 coins	2.8%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$126 180 coins	4.7%	1	0.4	—
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 10	$91.00 130 coins	17.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$90.30 129 coins	9.2%	0	1.0	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$89.60 128 coins	13.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$31.54 45.06 coins	7.1%	4	2.2	1.85×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$15.73 22.47 coins	4.4%	2	2.7	0.74×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	18.0%	$15.67 22.39 coins	5.3%	5	3.2	1.54×
UMP-45 \| Caramel (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$11.45 16.36 coins	5.4%	4	4.5	0.89×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$58.3383.33 coins$15.6722.39 coins0.27x1d

UMP-45 | Caramel (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$58.3383.33 coins$11.4516.36 coins0.20x1d

MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$58.3383.33 coins$31.5445.06 coins0.54x1d

Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$58.3383.33 coins$15.6722.39 coins0.27x1d

Souvenir SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedgifu$58.3383.33 coins$91.00130 coins1.56x1d

Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$59.8385.47 coins$15.7222.46 coins0.26x3d

MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specMinorityy$59.8385.47 coins$36.5952.27 coins0.61x3d

Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$59.8385.47 coins$15.7222.46 coins0.26x6d

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$59.8385.47 coins$130186 coins2.18x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$58.33	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$59.02	90.90%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$59.83	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 26.1%covert 2.6%extraordinary 0.6%restricted 25.9%mil spec 19.9%consumer 25.0%best hit —