Contagion
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.80
35.43 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $22.55 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.79%
627 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 627 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$24.8035.43 coins$5.778.24 coins0.23x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeCousin of po$24.8035.43 coins$5.778.24 coins0.23x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$24.8035.43 coins$81.20116 coins3.27x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$24.8035.43 coins$5.948.49 coins0.24x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$24.8035.43 coins$81.20116 coins3.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $24.80 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $24.79 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $24.79 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.79 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $24.81 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $24.77 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $24.78 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $24.70 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $24.72 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.75 | 90.91% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%legendary 0.0%restricted 35.1%classified 0.3%extraordinary 2.2%exotic 5.5%mil spec 9.8%Mil Spec Grade 8.3%consumer 9.5%high 13.2%violet 15.2%best hit —