Contrast
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.55
2.21 coins
Advertised RTP
90.82%
EV $1.40 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.02%
31.1K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AUG | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialCARRITOS MAISTER$1.552.21 coins$2.743.92 coins1.77x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.55 | 90.82% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.55 | 90.77% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.55 | 91.00% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.58 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.58 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.58 | 90.78% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $1.58 | 91.01% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.58 | 90.94% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%restricted 8.8%mil spec 29.6%classified 5.5%industrial 16.0%consumer 40.0%best hit $105 (67.87x)