Cosmos

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.73

6.76 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $4.30 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.10%

7,998 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.52%±6.17887 openings

7 days

91.39%±2.386,195 openings

30 days

91.10%±2.107,998 openings

since tracking started

91.10%±2.107,998 openings

83.5%90.5%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	887	90.52%±6.17	−0.1σ	odds
7d	6,195	91.39%±2.38	+0.4σ	odds
30d	7,998	91.10%±2.10	+0.2σ	odds
All	7,998	91.10%±2.10	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,006 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$58.31 83.3 coins	1.4%	6	8.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$48.33 69.05 coins	2.2%	19	16.0	1.19×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 286	$29.13 41.61 coins	2.4%	21	28.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$28.80 41.14 coins	6.7%	77	80.1	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$20.75 29.64 coins	0.7%	10	12.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$15.32 21.89 coins	5.3%	145	120.1	1.21×
P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$6.78 9.68 coins	3.1%	150	160.1	0.94×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$6.65 9.5 coins	4.6%	228	240.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$6.30 9 coins	5.9%	339	320.2	1.06×
P2000 \| Space Race (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	18.9%	$4.74 6.77 coins	20.9%	1,531	1517.1	1.01×
Sticker \| Tornado Chaos (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 14	$4.73 6.75 coins	7.6%	538	556.4	0.97×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	18.5%	$3.81 5.44 coins	16.4%	1,456	1481.1	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 20	$3.28 4.68 coins	3.8%	397	400.3	0.99×
Sticker \| Incineration (Holo)sticker · remarkable	18.9%	$2.56 3.66 coins	11.3%	1,607	1517.1	1.06×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	19.4%	$1.70 2.43 coins	7.7%	1,482	1549.2	0.96×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Space Race (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$4.736.76 coins$4.746.77 coins1.00x1m

P2000 | Space Race (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedepycT❤M.$4.736.76 coins$4.746.77 coins1.00x1m

MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedEminescu$4.736.76 coins$6.659.5 coins1.41x2m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specepycT❤M.$4.736.76 coins$6.309 coins1.33x3m

Sticker | Incineration (Holo)sticker · remarkable$4.736.76 coins$2.563.66 coins0.54x3m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$4.736.76 coins$6.309 coins1.33x4m

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedepycT❤M.$4.736.76 coins$3.815.44 coins0.80x5m

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$4.736.76 coins$1.702.43 coins0.36x5m

P2000 | Space Race (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$4.736.76 coins$4.746.77 coins1.00x7m

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.736.76 coins$3.815.44 coins0.80x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$4.73	90.92%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.73	90.92%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%mil spec 4.4%restricted 58.0%classified 4.5%uncommon 2.0%exotic 7.0%rare 5.0%remarkable 18.9%best hit —