Covert
A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$164.03
234 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $149.12 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.93%
76 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 76 openings and 14.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertRidwan$162231 coins$680971 coins4.20x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryUser#878$164234 coins$71.40102 coins0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $165 | 90.91% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $162 | 90.91% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 90.2%extraordinary 9.8%best hit $680 (4.20x)