Cowboy
A case on CSGORoll (20%, gloves, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.58
6.54 coins
Advertised RTP
90.87%
EV $4.16 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.38%
12.9K openings, odds method
Variance
41.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 108
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$4.726.74 coins$389555 coins82.34x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$4.586.54 coins$0.390.55 coins0.08x
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil specUser#181$4.586.54 coins$9.5513.64 coins2.09x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$4.586.54 coins$1.912.73 coins0.42x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$4.586.54 coins$0.390.55 coins0.08x
Dual Berettas | Stained (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialUser#181$4.586.54 coins$0.080.11 coins0.02x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$4.586.54 coins$1.912.73 coins0.42x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$4.586.54 coins$0.390.55 coins0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.58 | 90.87% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.57 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.58 | 90.92% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.67 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.72 | 90.91% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%rare 0.1%restricted 8.5%legendary 0.1%classified 0.5%covert 0.2%mil spec 10.2%exotic 3.0%industrial 38.1%uncommon 7.2%consumer 32.0%best hit $1,292 (282.1x)