Crazy Train
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.10
5.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.96%
EV $3.72 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.62%
11.8K openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic | 1 in 10,000 | $148 211 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 80 | $18.20 26 coins | 6.1% | 124 | 147.2 | 0.84× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $17.71 25.3 coins | 1.2% | 31 | 29.4 | 1.05× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $15.07 21.53 coins | 36.4% | 1,094 | 1059.8 | 1.03× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $8.51 12.16 coins | 20.6% | 1,063 | 1059.8 | 1.00× |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 10.5% | $6.07 8.67 coins | 17.1% | 1,206 | 1236.4 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $2.98 4.26 coins | 16.0% | 2,380 | 2353.8 | 1.01× |
| Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $0.25 0.36 coins | 2.0% | 3,471 | 3532.5 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 2,405 | 2355.0 | 1.02× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrialAxiomatic csgoroll.com$4.105.85 coins$2.984.26 coins0.73x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $4.10 | 90.96% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.15 | 90.87% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.95 | 90.95% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $3.95 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $3.96 | 90.89% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.90 | 90.89% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%classified 21.0%restricted 39.0%industrial 40.0%best hit —