Creative
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.18
34.55 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $21.98 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.87%
912 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 912 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$24.1834.55 coins$3.054.36 coins0.13x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedUnfairScroll27$24.1834.55 coins$3.054.36 coins0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $24.18 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $24.18 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $24.18 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.19 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.89 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $24.11 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $24.11 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $24.11 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.12 | 90.92% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.8%extraordinary 1.0%covert 9.3%Classified 1.5%restricted 31.9%industrial 2.5%pink 6.0%mil spec 41.0%consumer 5.0%best hit —