Criminal
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$182.95
261 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $166.31 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.73%
891 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 891 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$187267 coins$7,47910,685 coins40.08x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$183261 coins$6,7809,685 coins37.06x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkabletiltedfish$187267 coins$1,4152,021 coins7.58x
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$183261 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkableKickerrrrrrrr$183261 coins$1,3871,982 coins7.58x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$183261 coins$285407 coins1.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $183 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.6%covert 5.4%extraordinary 7.0%epic 1.0%classified 3.5%legendary 1.5%consumer 80.0%best hit $7,479 (40.08x)