Crimson

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$83.68

120 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $76.07 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.05%

1,763 openings, odds method

Variance

6.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

121.16%±41.92148 openings

7 days

88.28%±13.171,491 openings

30 days

88.05%±12.111,763 openings

since tracking started

88.05%±12.111,763 openings

74.5%119.0%163.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	148	121.16%±41.9	+1.4σ	odds
7d	1,491	88.28%±13.2	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,763	88.05%±12.1	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,763	88.05%±12.1	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,769 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$8,677 12,395 coins	1.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$4,617 6,595 coins	3.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$2,258 3,225 coins	1.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 500	$1,932 2,760 coins	5.1%	3	3.5	0.85×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 200	$484 692 coins	3.2%	11	8.8	1.24×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$455 650 coins	12.0%	29	35.4	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2	1 in 50	$445 635 coins	11.7%	39	35.4	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 31	$441 630 coins	18.5%	60	56.4	1.06×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 100	$412 588 coins	5.4%	19	17.7	1.07×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$295 421 coins	11.6%	51	53.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$255 365 coins	26.9%	136	141.5	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	20.0%	$0.06 0.09 coins	0.0%	340	353.8	0.96×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	20.0%	$0.03 0.04 coins	0.0%	340	353.8	0.96×
AUG \| Condemned (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	20.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	358	353.8	1.01×
G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	20.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	382	353.8	1.08×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$83.68120 coins$4,6176,595 coins55.17x1h

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$84.29120 coins$1,9072,725 coins22.63x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicSon?$84.29120 coins$1,9072,725 coins22.63x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$84.29120 coins$1,9072,725 coins22.63x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$84.29120 coins$1,9072,725 coins22.63x8d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$84.29120 coins$509727 coins6.04x3d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$84.29120 coins$509727 coins6.04x5d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$84.29120 coins$509727 coins6.04x6d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyTyrone$84.29120 coins$509727 coins6.04x6d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Rubybrayden_nguyenn$84.29120 coins$509727 coins6.04x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$83.68120 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x55m

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialKlass 2$83.68120 coins$0.030.04 coins0.00x1h

G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$83.68120 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialKickerrrrrrrr$83.68120 coins$0.060.09 coins0.00x1h

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$83.68120 coins$0.030.04 coins0.00x1h

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$83.68120 coins$255365 coins3.05x1h

G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$83.68120 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$83.68120 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$83.68	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$83.68	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$84.30	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$84.29	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.3%extraordinary 2.1%epic 0.2%legendary 3.5%industrial 60.0%consumer 20.0%best hit $4,617 (55.17x)