Crimson Rush
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.39
30.56 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $19.45 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.38%
1,356 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,356 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red)graffiti · baseBiO-HaZarD$21.3930.56 coins$1.361.94 coins0.06x
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$21.3930.56 coins$82.60118 coins3.86x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.3930.56 coins$11.3116.16 coins0.53x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.3930.56 coins$4.496.42 coins0.21x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.3930.56 coins$5.347.63 coins0.25x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$21.3930.56 coins$249356 coins11.65x
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$21.3930.56 coins$19.8128.3 coins0.93x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.3930.56 coins$11.3116.16 coins0.53x
Sticker | Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exoticBiO-HaZarD$21.3930.56 coins$17.0824.4 coins0.80x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $21.39 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $21.38 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.36 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.76 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $21.76 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $21.74 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $21.75 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $21.78 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.76 | 90.92% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.6%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 41.8%exotic 5.9%industrial 6.5%classified 8.0%Rare 9.0%violet 7.0%base 12.0%best hit —