Price
$3,219.38
4,599 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $2,926.70 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
99.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 33 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 200 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 345 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 667 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $4,400 6,285 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 33 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 90.0% | $2,615 3,735 coins | 80.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $2,037 2,910 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3,219 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3,190 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.9%contraband 3.0%extraordinary 0.1%legendary 4.0%classified 90.0%