Crystal

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.58

36.54 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $23.26 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.24%

505 openings, odds method

Variance

4.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

54 openings · below min

7 days

90.70%±23.68316 openings

30 days

100.24%±18.63505 openings

since tracking started

100.24%±18.63505 openings

31.5%90.5%149.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	54	90.66%±58.3	—	odds
7d	316	90.70%±23.7	−0.0σ	odds
30d	505	100.24%±18.6	+1.0σ	odds
All	505	100.24%±18.6	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,333	$1,177 1,682 coins	3.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$776 1,108 coins	1.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 571	$484 691 coins	3.6%	0	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$414 591 coins	1.8%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 800	$384 549 coins	2.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$365 522 coins	2.4%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$160 229 coins	1.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 87	$120 172 coins	6.0%	6	5.8	1.03×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$115 164 coins	4.9%	6	5.0	1.19×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$113 162 coins	6.3%	8	6.6	1.22×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$109 155 coins	19.8%	25	21.5	1.16×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$104 148 coins	1.3%	3	1.5	1.98×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$86.80 124 coins	1.9%	3	2.5	1.19×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$80.50 115 coins	5.2%	4	7.6	0.53×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$43.49 62.13 coins	7.5%	12	20.2	0.59×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$29.08 41.55 coins	2.5%	10	10.1	0.99×
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$25.44 36.34 coins	4.9%	25	22.7	1.10×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$18.35 26.22 coins	4.7%	36	30.3	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 59	$15.52 22.17 coins	1.1%	9	8.6	1.05×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$11.69 16.7 coins	2.5%	39	25.3	1.54×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.9%	$10.56 15.09 coins	5.0%	55	55.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$9.28 13.26 coins	2.8%	34	35.4	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	16.0%	$4.66 6.66 coins	3.2%	75	80.8	0.93×
Sticker \| Watermelon Buttery (Holo)sticker · remarkable	14.0%	$3.14 4.48 coins	1.9%	63	70.7	0.89×
Music Kit \| bbno$, u mad!music kit · high	18.0%	$2.23 3.18 coins	1.7%	88	90.9	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$25.8136.87 coins$1,0661,523 coins41.31x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$25.5836.54 coins$7761,108 coins30.32x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$25.5836.54 coins$10.5615.09 coins0.41x11h

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$25.5836.54 coins$115164 coins4.49x11h

Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covertElite Orion$25.5836.54 coins$109155 coins4.24x11h

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covertNecro$25.5836.54 coins$104148 coins4.05x11h

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$25.5836.54 coins$4.666.66 coins0.18x11h

SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specElite Orion$25.5836.54 coins$11.6916.7 coins0.46x11h

AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classifiedByxan$25.5836.54 coins$25.4436.34 coins0.99x11h

MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specdale$25.5836.54 coins$18.3526.22 coins0.72x11h

Music Kit | bbno$, u mad!music kit · high$25.5836.54 coins$2.233.18 coins0.09x11h

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryElite Orion$25.5836.54 coins$4.666.66 coins0.18x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$25.58	90.92%	25
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$25.84	90.91%	25
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$25.81	90.90%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.3%covert 13.6%mil spec 13.0%classified 15.4%industrial 1.7%restricted 7.0%Legendary 16.0%remarkable 14.0%high 18.0%best hit $1,066 (41.31x)