Crystal Ball
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$119.27
170 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $108.42 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.00%
404 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 404 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$120171 coins$9451,350 coins7.88x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$120171 coins$9451,350 coins7.88x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$120171 coins$9451,350 coins7.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedBaduci$119170 coins$9.8214.03 coins0.08x
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedM4n1aK$119170 coins$9.8214.03 coins0.08x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specElite Orion$119170 coins$1.532.18 coins0.01x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Byxan$119170 coins$120171 coins1.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Jakymowsky$119170 coins$120171 coins1.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$119170 coins$120171 coins1.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$119170 coins$120171 coins1.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 19.5%extraordinary 12.9%restricted 5.0%classified 31.0%rare 1.5%mil spec 15.0%consumer 15.0%best hit $1,174 (9.78x)