CSGOROLL 2025

A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$19.61

28.01 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $17.82 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.34%

4,568 openings, odds method

Variance

4.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.35%±24.47280 openings

7 days

96.62%±6.194,408 openings

30 days

96.34%±6.084,568 openings

since tracking started

96.34%±6.084,568 openings

58.0%83.3%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	280	83.35%±24.5	−0.6σ	odds
7d	4,408	96.62%±6.19	+1.8σ	odds
30d	4,568	96.34%±6.08	+1.7σ	odds
All	4,568	96.34%±6.08	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,568 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,008 1,440 coins	2.8%	3	2.3	1.31×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$863 1,233 coins	0.5%	1	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$493 705 coins	1.4%	4	2.3	1.75×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,111	$388 554 coins	2.0%	4	4.1	0.97×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$300 428 coins	5.0%	16	13.7	1.17×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$214 305 coins	1.2%	4	4.6	0.88×
Sticker \| wayLander (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 400	$183 261 coins	2.6%	16	11.4	1.40×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$120 172 coins	6.8%	46	45.7	1.01×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$98.70 141 coins	2.8%	21	22.8	0.92×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$82.60 118 coins	3.0%	30	29.7	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$78.40 112 coins	17.6%	183	182.7	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$62.86 89.8 coins	7.1%	103	91.4	1.13×
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$51.53 73.61 coins	17.3%	292	274.1	1.07×
Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	25.0%	$7.69 10.98 coins	10.8%	1,172	1142.0	1.03×
Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic	20.0%	$6.87 9.82 coins	7.7%	864	913.6	0.95×
Sticker \| Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	10.0%	$6.83 9.76 coins	3.8%	449	456.8	0.98×
Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	30.0%	$4.56 6.52 coins	7.7%	1,360	1370.4	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryFslayer90$19.3727.67 coins$1,0081,440 coins52.04x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$19.3727.67 coins$1,0081,440 coins52.04x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarychrilton$19.3727.67 coins$1,0081,440 coins52.04x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.3727.67 coins$8531,218 coins44.02x5d

★ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert$19.3727.67 coins$516737 coins26.64x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic$19.6128.01 coins$6.879.82 coins0.35x9m

Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$19.6128.01 coins$4.566.52 coins0.23x9m

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare$19.6128.01 coins$62.8689.8 coins3.21x9m

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$19.6128.01 coins$120172 coins6.14x9m

UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specJake$19.6128.01 coins$78.40112 coins4.00x9m

Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic$19.6128.01 coins$6.879.82 coins0.35x9m

Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$19.6128.01 coins$4.566.52 coins0.23x9m

Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exoticJake$19.6128.01 coins$6.839.76 coins0.35x9m

Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$19.6128.01 coins$6.839.76 coins0.35x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$19.61	90.90%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$19.42	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$19.37	90.92%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.8%covert 1.9%restricted 0.3%mil spec 10.0%rare 2.0%exotic 85.0%best hit $1,008 (52.04x)