CSGORoll 2026

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$59.79

85.41 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $54.35 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.93%

243 openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

73.30%±38.07197 openings

30 days

76.93%±34.26243 openings

since tracking started

76.93%±34.26243 openings

34.5%73.3%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	197	73.30%±38.1	−0.9σ	odds
30d	243	76.93%±34.3	−0.8σ	odds
All	243	76.93%±34.3	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 243 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$21.8K 31,155 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$20.8K 29,650 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 33,333	$10.3K 14,660 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$7,028 10,040 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| sdy (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 500	$1,221 1,744 coins	4.5%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 833	$1,130 1,614 coins	2.5%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,114 1,591 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 400	$695 993 coins	3.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$437 624 coins	4.0%	2	1.2	1.65×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 400	$436 623 coins	2.0%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$435 621 coins	4.0%	2	1.2	1.65×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$336 480 coins	3.1%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$307 438 coins	1.7%	1	0.7	—
Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$282 403 coins	5.2%	1	2.4	0.41×
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 200	$226 323 coins	2.1%	1	1.2	0.82×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 133	$207 296 coins	2.9%	3	1.8	1.65×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$206 294 coins	2.8%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$193 275 coins	1.8%	1	1.2	0.82×
Sticker \| Zeus (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 133	$186 265 coins	2.6%	2	1.8	1.10×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$143 204 coins	1.3%	1	1.2	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 200	$125 179 coins	1.2%	2	1.2	1.65×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 25	$118 168 coins	8.7%	11	9.7	1.13×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$101 144 coins	9.3%	9	12.2	0.74×
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$92.40 132 coins	3.4%	4	4.9	0.82×
Audience Participation Parcelother · base	1 in 33	$88.20 126 coins	4.9%	3	7.3	0.41×
ESL One Cologne 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 12	$61.17 87.39 coins	9.1%	19	19.6	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	12.0%	$16.92 24.17 coins	3.7%	34	29.2	1.17×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$15.03 21.47 coins	4.1%	35	36.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.0%	$11.45 16.35 coins	5.3%	62	60.8	1.02×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	18.0%	$8.51 12.16 coins	2.8%	48	43.7	1.10×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMajkel$59.7985.41 coins$11.4516.35 coins0.19x1d

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedZaph$59.7985.41 coins$11.4516.35 coins0.19x1d

ESL One Cologne 2014 Legendsother · base$59.7985.41 coins$61.1787.39 coins1.02x1d

ESL One Cologne 2014 Legendsother · baseMajkel$59.7985.41 coins$61.1787.39 coins1.02x1d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$59.7985.41 coins$15.0321.47 coins0.25x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Majkel$59.7985.41 coins$118168 coins1.97x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryOrcGazmas$59.7985.41 coins$307438 coins5.13x1d

Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$59.7985.41 coins$8.5112.16 coins0.14x1d

Audience Participation Parcelother · base$59.7985.41 coins$88.20126 coins1.48x1d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedZaph$59.7985.41 coins$15.0321.47 coins0.25x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$59.79	90.91%	31
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$60.17	90.91%	31
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$60.39	90.91%	31
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$60.35	90.91%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%covert 13.0%extraordinary 1.3%high 0.1%classified 70.5%epic 0.8%legendary 0.3%restricted 1.0%mil spec 2.0%base 11.1%best hit —