CT-Spawn

A case on CSGORoll (csgo, 5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$31.77

45.38 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $28.88 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.07%

1,286 openings, odds method

Variance

24.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 48

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

129 openings · below min

7 days

96.63%±29.961,038 openings

30 days

90.07%±26.891,286 openings

since tracking started

90.07%±26.891,286 openings

32.0%118.0%204.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	129	117.94%±85.3	—	odds
7d	1,038	96.63%±30.0	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,286	90.07%±26.9	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,286	90.07%±26.9	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,286 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$7,000 10,000 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$4,946 7,065 coins	5.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$2,426 3,465 coins	1.7%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$2,387 3,410 coins	5.0%	1	0.8	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$1,407 2,010 coins	1.9%	2	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,111	$1,156 1,651 coins	3.6%	4	1.2	3.46×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,033 1,475 coins	3.6%	3	1.3	2.33×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$1,002 1,432 coins	6.9%	2	2.6	0.78×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$915 1,307 coins	3.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 500	$457 653 coins	3.2%	2	2.6	0.78×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$429 613 coins	3.7%	1	3.2	0.31×
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$348 497 coins	3.6%	1	3.9	0.26×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$300 429 coins	4.2%	2	5.1	0.39×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$300 428 coins	3.1%	3	3.9	0.78×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$289 413 coins	2.5%	3	3.2	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$219 313 coins	3.0%	5	5.1	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$164 234 coins	2.6%	7	5.8	1.21×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$158 226 coins	2.7%	8	6.4	1.24×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$93.80 134 coins	2.4%	11	9.6	1.14×
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 182	$78.40 112 coins	1.5%	12	7.1	1.70×
'Two Times' McCoy \| TACP Cavalryagent · superior	30.0%	$13.79 19.7 coins	14.3%	401	385.8	1.04×
'Two Times' McCoy \| USAF TACPagent · superior	30.0%	$12.73 18.18 coins	13.2%	353	385.8	0.91×
Buckshot \| NSWC SEALagent · violet	35.0%	$5.35 7.65 coins	6.5%	465	450.1	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$31.7745.38 coins$2,3873,410 coins75.14x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$31.7745.38 coins$1,4072,010 coins44.29x16h

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$31.7745.38 coins$1,4072,010 coins44.29x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$32.4446.34 coins$1,1591,656 coins35.74x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$32.4446.34 coins$1,1591,656 coins35.74x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$31.7745.38 coins$1,1561,651 coins36.38x38m

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$31.7745.38 coins$1,1561,651 coins36.38x2d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary$32.4446.34 coins$1,0931,561 coins33.69x3d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary$32.4446.34 coins$1,0931,561 coins33.69x6d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary$31.7745.38 coins$1,0331,475 coins32.50x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violet$31.7745.38 coins$5.357.65 coins0.17x25m

Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violetcoverq$31.7745.38 coins$5.357.65 coins0.17x25m

'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superior$31.7745.38 coins$12.7318.18 coins0.40x25m

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$31.7745.38 coins$219313 coins6.90x25m

'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superior$31.7745.38 coins$12.7318.18 coins0.40x25m

Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violet$31.7745.38 coins$5.357.65 coins0.17x38m

Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violetPetrrr csgoroll.com$31.7745.38 coins$5.357.65 coins0.17x38m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$31.77	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$31.79	90.90%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$32.44	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 0.7%extraordinary 0.1%classified 1.5%legendary 0.1%restricted 2.1%mil spec 0.5%superior 60.0%violet 35.0%best hit $2,387 (75.14x)