Cursed
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.02
42.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $27.29 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.04%
619 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 619 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearlsirwins.a.not$29.7442.48 coins$7541,077 coins25.35x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$29.7442.48 coins$7541,077 coins25.35x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$30.0242.88 coins$9.5313.62 coins0.32x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.02 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.02 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.74 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.4%classified 64.3%extraordinary 0.9%rare 0.4%restricted 30.0%best hit $754 (25.35x)