Curtpur

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$24.99

35.7 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $22.72 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.79%

6,692 openings, odds method

Variance

501.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 1,333

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

781 openings · below min

7 days

5,366 openings · below min

30 days

101.79%±53.436,692 openings

since tracking started

101.79%±53.436,692 openings

44.0%214.0%384.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	781	226.38%±157.1	—	odds
7d	5,366	104.33%±59.7	—	odds
30d	6,692	101.79%±53.4	+0.4σ	odds
All	6,692	101.79%±53.4	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,692 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 4,000	$25K 35,730 coins	27.5%	2	1.7	1.20×
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 4,000	$17.6K 25,125 coins	19.4%	2	1.7	1.20×
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 4,000	$10.3K 14,660 coins	11.3%	2	1.7	1.20×
AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$9,370 13,385 coins	10.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 4,000	$7,297 10,425 coins	8.0%	2	1.7	1.20×
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 4,000	$6,780 9,685 coins	7.5%	1	1.7	0.60×
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 4,000	$3,164 4,520 coins	3.5%	4	1.7	2.39×
M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$2,653 3,790 coins	2.9%	4	1.7	2.39×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 4,000	$1,928 2,755 coins	2.1%	2	1.7	1.20×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,295 1,850 coins	1.4%	2	1.7	1.20×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,288 1,840 coins	1.4%	3	1.7	1.79×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,047 1,495 coins	1.2%	4	1.7	2.39×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$963 1,376 coins	1.1%	3	1.7	1.79×
Sticker \| kennyS (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 4,000	$871 1,244 coins	1.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$700 1,000 coins	0.8%	4	1.7	2.39×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$631 902 coins	0.7%	0	1.7	0.00×
Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo)sticker · violet	1 in 4,000	$4.67 6.67 coins	0.0%	1	1.7	0.60×
Sealed Graffiti \| Kawaii Killer CTgraffiti · remarkable	1 in 4,000	$3.00 4.29 coins	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
Sealed Graffiti \| Kawaii Killer Terroristgraffiti · remarkable	1 in 4,000	$2.07 2.95 coins	0.0%	2	1.7	1.20×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	99.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	6,654	6660.2	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$25.3636.23 coins$25K35,730 coins986.2x3d

EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$24.9935.7 coins$25K35,730 coins1,001x22h

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$!TheHeadhunter$24.9935.7 coins$17.6K25,125 coins703.8x2d

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryGyzmo$25.3636.23 coins$17.6K25,125 coins693.5x7d

Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$24.9935.7 coins$10.3K14,660 coins410.6x21h

Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$25.3636.23 coins$10.3K14,660 coins404.6x4d

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableRobond$25.3636.23 coins$7,47910,685 coins294.9x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$25.3636.23 coins$7,47610,680 coins294.8x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$25.3636.23 coins$7,47610,680 coins294.8x8d

Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high$24.9935.7 coins$3,1644,520 coins126.6x19h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$24.9935.7 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerazi$24.9935.7 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$24.9935.7 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerdana$24.9935.7 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerAjax absult 100%$24.9935.7 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$24.9935.7 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$24.99	90.92%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$24.99	90.92%	20
3 Nov, 16:07 UTC	$25.36	90.90%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$25.36	90.90%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbase 0.0%legendary 0.1%remarkable 0.1%covert 0.2%contraband 0.0%high 0.0%classified 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%violet 0.0%consumer 99.5%best hit $25K (986.2x)