Cushion

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.46

26.37 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $16.78 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.49%

895 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

118.45%±34.06106 openings

7 days

88.91%±12.63780 openings

30 days

88.49%±11.79895 openings

since tracking started

88.49%±11.79895 openings

75.5%114.3%153.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	106	118.45%±34.1	+1.6σ	odds
7d	780	88.91%±12.6	−0.3σ	odds
30d	895	88.49%±11.8	−0.4σ	odds
All	895	88.49%±11.8	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 899 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$366 523 coins	8.7%	3	3.6	0.83×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$279 398 coins	1.7%	0	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$226 323 coins	13.5%	8	9.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$51.07 72.95 coins	3.0%	11	9.0	1.22×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$47.66 68.09 coins	2.8%	8	9.0	0.89×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$46.44 66.34 coins	2.8%	10	9.0	1.11×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$39.71 56.73 coins	2.4%	10	9.0	1.11×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$36.81 52.59 coins	2.2%	11	9.0	1.22×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$29.14 41.63 coins	1.7%	8	9.0	0.89×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$29.08 41.55 coins	1.7%	8	9.0	0.89×
UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 29	$26.87 38.38 coins	5.6%	37	31.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$24.85 35.5 coins	1.5%	10	9.0	1.11×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$23.72 33.88 coins	4.2%	22	27.0	0.82×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$21.74 31.06 coins	1.9%	13	13.5	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$21.55 30.78 coins	1.9%	22	13.5	1.63×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$15.88 22.69 coins	0.9%	13	9.0	1.45×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	80.0%	$9.09 12.98 coins	43.3%	705	719.2	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.4626.37 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.49x29m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$18.4626.37 coins$47.6668.09 coins2.58x29m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.4626.37 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.49x29m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted᠌ ᠌Liwon$18.4626.37 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.49x29m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.4626.37 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.49x29m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBiO-HaZarD$18.4626.37 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.49x29m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.4626.37 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.49x33m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$18.46	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$19.03	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$19.27	90.89%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.4%classified 8.1%covert 5.0%Mythical 1.0%mil spec 2.0%industrial 3.5%restricted 80.0%best hit —