Cyclone
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$71.60
102 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $65.09 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.17%
94 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 94 openings and 17.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertByxan$71.60102 coins$61.1387.33 coins0.85x
★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryKermgg$71.60102 coins$82.60118 coins1.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.60 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.46 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $74.40 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.1%covert 13.1%mil spec 5.0%extraordinary 20.0%classified 18.0%consumer 10.8%industrial 15.0%restricted 18.0%best hit —