Dance

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.93

55.62 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $35.39 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.38%

135 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

89 openings · below min

30 days

77.38%±23.67135 openings

since tracking started

77.38%±23.67135 openings

14.0%68.5%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	68.63%±53.9	—	odds
7d	89	81.35%±29.1	—	odds
30d	135	77.38%±23.7	−1.1σ	odds
All	135	77.38%±23.7	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$277 395 coins	3.1%	1	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$226 323 coins	31.9%	2	6.8	0.30×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 154	$193 276 coins	3.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 333	$168 240 coins	1.4%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$142 203 coins	2.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$114 163 coins	2.3%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$107 153 coins	1.7%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$90.30 129 coins	1.9%	1	1.0	0.99×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$76.30 109 coins	4.3%	2	2.7	0.74×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$71.40 102 coins	1.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$64.64 92.34 coins	1.8%	1	1.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 15	$53.33 76.19 coins	9.8%	16	8.8	1.82×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$46.78 66.83 coins	4.0%	8	4.0	1.98×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$46.44 66.34 coins	4.6%	4	4.7	0.85×
Sticker \| crush (Foil) \| London 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 25	$40.84 58.34 coins	4.6%	8	5.4	1.48×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	10.0%	$30.51 43.58 coins	8.6%	14	13.5	1.04×
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.0%	$12.03 17.18 coins	4.8%	14	18.9	0.74×
AUG \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$8.04 11.48 coins	1.8%	14	10.8	1.30×
USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$7.86 11.23 coins	1.6%	11	9.5	1.16×
UMP-45 \| Scorched (Factory New)weapon · consumer	12.0%	$6.79 9.7 coins	2.3%	13	16.2	0.80×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	19.4%	$4.31 6.15 coins	2.4%	24	26.1	0.92×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$38.9355.62 coins$4.316.15 coins0.11x1h

AUG | Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted$38.9355.62 coins$8.0411.48 coins0.21x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.9355.62 coins$53.3376.19 coins1.37x1h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMiltsukkaaaw :3$38.9355.62 coins$30.5143.58 coins0.78x1h

P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$38.9355.62 coins$12.0317.18 coins0.31x6h

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$38.9355.62 coins$114163 coins2.93x6h

USP-S | Para Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$38.9355.62 coins$7.8611.23 coins0.20x6h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$38.9355.62 coins$30.5143.58 coins0.78x6h

FAMAS | Sundown (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$38.9355.62 coins$46.7866.83 coins1.20x6h

AUG | Torque (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfast csgoroll.com$38.9355.62 coins$8.0411.48 coins0.21x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$38.93	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$39.64	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.26	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 28.3%classified 34.0%rare 0.3%extraordinary 0.7%restricted 8.8%mil spec 5.0%remarkable 4.0%industrial 7.0%consumer 12.0%best hit —