Daredevil Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$72.77
104 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $66.16 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.56%
312 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · restrictedKickerrrrrrrr$72.77104 coins$12.3817.68 coins0.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$72.77104 coins$11.9717.1 coins0.16x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.77104 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.73x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertBlair$72.77104 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.73x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.77 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.83 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.25 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 17.0%restricted 35.9%classified 47.0%best hit —