Dark Matter
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$70.57
101 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $64.16 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.25%
4,407 openings, odds method
Variance
25.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,407 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 36.0% | 22 | 22.0 | 1.00× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 17.4% | 44 | 44.1 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $646 923 coins | 10.1% | 47 | 44.1 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $532 760 coins | 20.7% | 127 | 110.2 | 1.15× |
| ★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $316 452 coins | 9.9% | 109 | 88.1 | 1.24× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $128 183 coins | 6.0% | 128 | 132.2 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,930 | 3966.3 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.57 | 90.91% | 7 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.53 | 90.91% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.0%classified 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $4,631 (64.74x)