David
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.29
17.56 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $11.17 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.40%
2,847 openings, odds method
Variance
12.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,853 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$11.9817.12 coins$4,0255,750 coins335.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrialBiO-HaZarD$12.2917.56 coins$38.4754.96 coins3.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $12.29 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.26 | 90.93% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.98 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $12.02 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $11.98 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.10 | 90.88% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 4.4%industrial 54.6%classified 4.0%restricted 12.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit $4,025 (335.9x)