Dawn

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$32.25

46.07 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $29.32 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.47%

932 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83 openings · below min

7 days

92.02%±10.73802 openings

30 days

90.47%±9.96932 openings

since tracking started

90.47%±9.96932 openings

52.0%85.5%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	83	85.41%±33.0	—	odds
7d	802	92.02%±10.7	+0.2σ	odds
30d	932	90.47%±9.96	−0.1σ	odds
All	932	90.47%±9.96	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 932 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,644 2,349 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,364 1,948 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,343 1,919 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Howling Dawnsticker · contraband	1 in 10,000	$1,130 1,614 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 5,000	$911 1,302 coins	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$875 1,250 coins	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$536 766 coins	0.9%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$421 602 coins	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,250	$364 520 coins	1.0%	0	0.7	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$334 477 coins	1.1%	1	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$316 452 coins	1.6%	3	1.4	2.15×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 435	$223 318 coins	1.7%	4	2.1	1.87×
Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 345	$175 250 coins	1.7%	5	2.7	1.85×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$172 245 coins	2.0%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 204	$134 192 coins	2.2%	2	4.6	0.44×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 143	$126 180 coins	3.0%	6	6.5	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$89.60 128 coins	2.9%	10	8.9	1.12×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 79	$86.80 124 coins	3.8%	12	11.8	1.01×
Souvenir P90 \| Teardown (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 51	$69.24 98.91 coins	4.7%	24	18.4	1.31×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 19	$60.84 86.91 coins	11.2%	69	50.3	1.37×
Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$54.15 77.36 coins	14.5%	53	73.3	0.72×
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10	$52.95 75.64 coins	18.0%	101	92.8	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	12.0%	$30.62 43.74 coins	12.5%	115	111.8	1.03×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$7.93 11.33 coins	4.1%	123	139.8	0.88×
Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$7.48 10.68 coins	4.6%	156	167.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.0%	$5.27 7.53 coins	4.5%	246	233.0	1.06×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$32.2546.07 coins$5.277.53 coins0.16x10m

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$32.2546.07 coins$86.80124 coins2.69x10m

MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$32.2546.07 coins$7.9311.33 coins0.25x10m

Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil specJarza$32.2546.07 coins$7.4810.68 coins0.23x10m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$32.2546.07 coins$5.277.53 coins0.16x11m

Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$32.2546.07 coins$7.4810.68 coins0.23x11m

MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$32.2546.07 coins$7.9311.33 coins0.25x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$32.25	90.91%	26
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$33.17	90.90%	26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$33.32	90.90%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%contraband 0.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.1%restricted 15.0%mil spec 28.2%covert 1.9%classified 31.9%rare 12.7%extraordinary 10.0%best hit —