Daydream

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.32

13.31 coins

Advertised RTP

90.93%

EV $8.47 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.83%

38K openings, odds method

Variance

27.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 69

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.33%±15.124,593 openings

7 days

89.68%±5.7531.9K openings

30 days

88.83%±5.2638K openings

since tracking started

88.83%±5.2638K openings

73.5%89.3%105.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,593	89.33%±15.1	−0.2σ	odds
7d	31.9K	89.68%±5.75	−0.4σ	odds
30d	38K	88.83%±5.26	−0.8σ	odds
All	38K	88.83%±5.26	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$679 970 coins	4.0%	16	19.0	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$557 795 coins	6.6%	32	38.1	0.84×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 667	$501 716 coins	8.9%	50	57.1	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$404 577 coins	14.3%	114	114.2	1.00×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$300 429 coins	7.1%	69	76.1	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$291 416 coins	8.6%	100	95.2	1.05×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 250	$224 320 coins	10.6%	137	152.3	0.90×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 222	$209 298 coins	11.1%	188	171.3	1.10×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 286	$184 263 coins	7.6%	125	133.2	0.94×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$96.60 138 coins	6.8%	235	228.4	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$84.00 120 coins	5.0%	213	190.3	1.12×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$61.54 87.92 coins	4.0%	236	209.4	1.13×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$48.87 69.82 coins	2.3%	154	152.3	1.01×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$36.79 52.56 coins	3.0%	270	266.5	1.01×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	35.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.1%	13,267	13323.8	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	11,380	11420.4	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	11,482	11420.4	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x8h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x10h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLolmanadam$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x16h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLarre$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubysbears$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyYetskidoo$9.3213.31 coins$679970 coins72.88x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$9.4413.49 coins$664949 coins70.35x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9.3213.31 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9.3213.31 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9.3213.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUser#932$9.3213.31 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9.3213.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9.3213.31 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$9.32	90.93%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$9.32	90.90%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$9.30	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$9.44	90.90%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.8%restricted 0.3%classified 0.9%consumer 95.0%best hit $679 (72.88x)