Deadshot

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.21

24.59 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $15.65 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.76%

16.3K openings, odds method

Variance

48.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 135

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.14%±33.971,611 openings

7 days

81.21%±11.5713.8K openings

30 days

82.76%±10.6516.3K openings

since tracking started

82.76%±10.6516.3K openings

39.5%74.3%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,611	74.14%±34.0	−1.0σ	odds
7d	13.8K	81.21%±11.6	−1.6σ	odds
30d	16.3K	82.76%±10.7	−1.5σ	odds
All	16.3K	82.76%±10.7	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 3,333	$4,305 6,150 coins	8.3%	3	4.9	0.61×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$1,988 2,840 coins	1.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,432 2,045 coins	9.1%	14	16.4	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$1,165 1,664 coins	7.4%	16	16.4	0.98×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,100 1,572 coins	3.5%	5	8.2	0.61×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$1,002 1,432 coins	9.6%	27	24.5	1.10×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$888 1,269 coins	5.7%	17	16.4	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 500	$563 804 coins	7.2%	23	32.7	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$377 539 coins	4.8%	25	32.7	0.76×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$377 539 coins	7.2%	55	49.1	1.12×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$277 395 coins	5.3%	51	49.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$273 390 coins	6.1%	60	57.3	1.05×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 400	$246 352 coins	3.9%	37	40.9	0.90×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$178 254 coins	2.8%	38	40.9	0.93×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$128 183 coins	2.5%	47	49.1	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$109 155 coins	3.5%	82	81.8	1.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$107 153 coins	2.7%	68	65.4	1.04×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 200	$96.60 138 coins	3.1%	79	81.8	0.97×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 250	$86.80 124 coins	2.2%	70	65.4	1.07×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 196	$72.80 104 coins	2.4%	80	83.4	0.96×
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$0.34 0.48 coins	0.6%	4,916	4908.0	1.00×
P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$0.27 0.38 coins	0.5%	4,861	4908.0	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	35.0%	$0.06 0.09 coins	0.1%	5,786	5726.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$17.2124.59 coins$4,3056,150 coins250.1x1d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$17.3724.81 coins$4,3056,150 coins247.9x5d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$17.3724.81 coins$4,3056,150 coins247.9x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKickerrrrrrrr$17.2124.59 coins$1,4322,045 coins83.16x3h

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$17.2124.59 coins$1,4322,045 coins83.16x22h

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryHave you seen my cat?$17.2124.59 coins$1,4322,045 coins83.16x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$17.2124.59 coins$1,4322,045 coins83.16x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$17.2124.59 coins$0.340.48 coins0.02x9m

P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$17.2124.59 coins$0.270.38 coins0.02x9m

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$17.2124.59 coins$0.340.48 coins0.02x9m

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specJake$17.2124.59 coins$0.340.48 coins0.02x9m

UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$17.2124.59 coins$0.060.09 coins0.00x9m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$17.2124.59 coins$273390 coins15.86x9m

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$17.2124.59 coins$0.340.48 coins0.02x20m

UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$17.2124.59 coins$0.060.09 coins0.00x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$17.21	90.89%	23
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.21	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$17.23	90.90%	23
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$17.37	90.89%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.37	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.3%covert 2.7%extraordinary 0.5%restricted 0.3%classified 1.0%rare 0.2%mil spec 60.0%industrial 35.0%best hit $4,305 (250.1x)