Deathwish
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$698.15
997 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $634.68 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.33%
169 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 345 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 200 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 2,000 | $6,241 8,915 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 50 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 13.8% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 100 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 8.6% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,301 1,859 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.20× |
| ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base | 90.0% | $365 522 coins | 51.8% | 158 | 152.1 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertI AM THE PIRATE KING$698997 coins$1,8092,585 coins2.59x
Latest dropsnewest first
ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · baseEatshot Machine$698997 coins$365522 coins0.52x
ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · baseThe AsA ShoW$698997 coins$365522 coins0.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $698 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $708 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%covert 6.7%contraband 2.0%high 1.0%base 90.0%best hit $4,365 (6.25x)