Decimator
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.71
69.59 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $44.28 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.95%
47 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 47 openings and 15.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMiltsukkaaaw :3$48.7169.59 coins$28.7241.03 coins0.59x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$48.7169.59 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.84x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$48.7169.59 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.84x
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified🟢Kick: Activ3C0ma$48.7169.59 coins$17.4724.95 coins0.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $48.71 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $49.35 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.52 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 24.3%restricted 1.7%classified 65.0%extraordinary 9.0%best hit —