Deep Dive
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$304.00
434 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $276.36 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.04%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$307439 coins$1,3781,968 coins4.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedI lost my MBA tuition fee$307439 coins$281402 coins0.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $304 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $307 | 90.91% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.9%high 0.1%legendary 4.3%extraordinary 15.6%restricted 50.0%rare 4.0%classified 25.0%best hit $1,378 (4.48x)