Defense
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.28
53.26 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $33.89 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.73%
94 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 94 openings and 35.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $244 348 coins | 14.4% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.13× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $103 147 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 143 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $52.35 74.78 coins | 15.4% | 15 | 9.4 | 1.60× |
| FAMAS | Sundown (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $46.78 66.83 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $38.12 54.45 coins | 22.5% | 19 | 18.8 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $27.74 39.63 coins | 16.4% | 18 | 18.8 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $26.17 37.38 coins | 7.7% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $24.75 35.36 coins | 8.8% | 6 | 11.3 | 0.53× |
| AUG | Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $8.58 12.26 coins | 5.1% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | CAUTION! (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMiltsukkaaaw :3$37.2853.26 coins$52.3574.78 coins1.40x
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedAWP GOD$37.2853.26 coins$26.1737.38 coins0.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.28 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.81 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.85 | 90.90% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 12.0%covert 0.3%classified 62.7%mil spec 5.0%industrial 20.0%best hit —