Defqon

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$47.99

68.56 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $43.63 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.51%

673 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.54%±34.10112 openings

7 days

92.69%±15.35537 openings

30 days

93.51%±13.65673 openings

since tracking started

93.51%±13.65673 openings

58.0%92.8%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	112	92.54%±34.1	+0.1σ	odds
7d	537	92.69%±15.4	+0.2σ	odds
30d	673	93.51%±13.6	+0.4σ	odds
All	673	93.51%±13.6	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 673 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$697 996 coins	16.0%	10	6.7	1.49×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$279 398 coins	6.4%	6	6.7	0.89×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$262 374 coins	6.0%	6	6.7	0.89×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$236 337 coins	5.4%	6	6.7	0.89×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$225 321 coins	2.6%	2	3.4	0.59×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$206 294 coins	4.7%	7	6.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$156 223 coins	10.7%	17	20.2	0.84×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$146 208 coins	3.3%	9	6.7	1.34×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$131 187 coins	3.0%	4	6.7	0.59×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$128 183 coins	8.8%	20	20.2	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$122 175 coins	2.8%	4	6.7	0.59×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$115 165 coins	2.6%	8	6.7	1.19×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$74.90 107 coins	1.7%	4	6.7	0.59×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$66.68 95.26 coins	3.1%	19	13.5	1.41×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	80.0%	$12.26 17.52 coins	22.5%	542	538.4	1.01×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	1 in 67	$9.69 13.84 coins	0.3%	9	10.1	0.89×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$47.9968.56 coins$697996 coins14.53x6h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$47.9968.56 coins$697996 coins14.53x1d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$47.9968.56 coins$697996 coins14.53x2d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$48.1568.79 coins$655935 coins13.59x3d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$48.1568.79 coins$655935 coins13.59x4d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$48.1568.79 coins$655935 coins13.59x5d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$48.1568.79 coins$655935 coins13.59x7d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$48.1568.79 coins$655935 coins13.59x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$47.9968.56 coins$262374 coins5.46x2h

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$47.9968.56 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.26x2h

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$47.9968.56 coins$128183 coins2.67x2h

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$47.9968.56 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.26x2h

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialShiba inu$47.9968.56 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.26x2h

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$47.9968.56 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.26x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$47.99	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$48.51	90.90%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$48.15	90.92%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%restricted 1.0%classified 2.0%extraordinary 5.5%industrial 80.0%consumer 1.5%best hit $697 (14.53x)