Dense

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$188.71

270 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $171.55 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.36%

97 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

79 openings · below min

30 days

97 openings · below min

since tracking started

97 openings · below min

-0.5%73.8%148.0%

Small sample. 97 openings and 8.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	21.83%±125.6	—	odds
7d	79	77.43%±34.6	—	odds
30d	97	77.36%±31.2	—	odds
All	97	77.36%±31.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| DD (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 33	$1,174 1,677 coins	20.5%	2	2.9	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 400	$995 1,422 coins	1.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 83	$945 1,350 coins	6.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 29	$814 1,163 coins	16.6%	4	3.4	1.18×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 125	$806 1,152 coins	3.8%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 333	$662 946 coins	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 222	$659 942 coins	1.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1	1 in 167	$641 916 coins	2.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 56	$603 862 coins	6.3%	2	1.7	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$540 772 coins	12.6%	2	3.9	0.52×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 100	$475 679 coins	2.8%	1	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 19	$247 353 coins	7.5%	6	5.0	1.19×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 21	$225 321 coins	6.3%	5	4.7	1.07×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 15	$143 204 coins	5.5%	6	6.4	0.94×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 15	$130 186 coins	4.9%	7	6.3	1.11×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	29	29.1	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	31	29.1	1.07×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | DD (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$190271 coins$1,1741,677 coins6.18x3d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendarySloth$190271 coins$8141,163 coins4.29x3d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$190271 coins$8141,163 coins4.29x5d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendaryhellsten05$190271 coins$8141,163 coins4.29x7d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$189270 coins$8061,152 coins4.27x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1$189270 coins$641916 coins3.40x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$190271 coins$629899 coins3.31x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$190271 coins$629899 coins3.31x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$189270 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$189270 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$189270 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerFaLLouT'z$189270 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$189270 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireFaLLouT'z$189270 coins$247353 coins1.31x15h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$189270 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1$189270 coins$641916 coins3.40x1d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireBaCraMo- csgoroll.com$189270 coins$247353 coins1.31x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$189	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$190	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 7.8%legendary 5.7%covert 20.0%epic 6.5%consumer 60.0%best hit $1,174 (6.18x)